Alameda, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS66 KMTR 131839
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1039 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

 - Chilly conditions this morning give way to warm daytime
   temperatures through the week with light offshore winds

 - Elevated risk of sneaker waves through Thursday

 - Pattern change possible next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

Tranquil conditions continue for today, with largely mostly sunny
skies. A few high clouds may attempt to skirt around the eastern
periphery of our H5 ridge and graze far interior portions of the
East Bay and Central Coast. Total column moisture continues to
diminish with the 12Z OAK RAOB sampling a PWAT of near 0.25" this
morning. This is around 0.15" lower than 24 hours ago. This
should equate to a steeper diurnal temperature curve and thus
warmer conditions compared to Monday (yesterday). The current
forecast for today (Tuesday) seems reasonable for MaxT with
widespread 60s and low 70s. Believe it or not, "Minor" HeatRisk is
advertised across parts of the Central Coast. In fact, a handful
of the valleys across the Central Coast, could see (around a
15-20% chance) temperatures climb into the mid 70s, especially
across the SC Mountains. All in all, not anticipating widespread
heat impacts and the real "impactful" weather element will be a
continued risk for hazardous beach conditions through the end of
the week, possibly longer. Be sure to check the latest beach
forecast before heading out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 125 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026
(Today and tonight)

Fog has developed tonight in parts of Sonoma County, namely the
Russian River Valley and the northern Santa Rosa Plain. It`s a
little hard to pick out in the satellite imagery, but it is being
shown on local webcams and the observations from Sonoma County
Airport. Visibilities should improve after sunrise this morning.
Otherwise, skies remain clear across the Bay Area and Central Coast
with light winds enhancing the chances for radiational cooling
across the region. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect across the
interior North Bay and East Bay valleys and the interior Central
Coast including the southern Salinas Valley through 9 AM as the lows
dip into the lower to middle 30s across the area. Elsewhere, low
temperatures reach the upper 30s to middle 40s in the lower
elevations and upper 40s to lower 50s in the higher elevations.

No significant weather concerns today as an upper level ridge
continues to dominate the weather pattern across the western United
States. Light offshore flow is expected to develop with wind gusts
topping out around the 15 to 20 mph range, and even then only during
the morning across favored regions near the Golden Gate and the
Pajaro Valley. High temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower
60s in the San Francisco area and the East Bay, and the middle 60s
to the lower 70s in the inland valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 125 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

For the weekly forecast, it`s wash, rinse, repeat. High pressure
stalls over the western United States, resulting in an extended
period of seasonally warm daytime highs, mild nighttime lows, and
light offshore winds. To give an idea of the regional warmth, high
temperatures through the upcoming weekend are around 5 degrees above
the seasonal average in downtown San Francisco, and around 8 to 15
degrees above the seasonal average across the rest of the Bay Area
and Central Coast.

Towards the early part of next week, just beyond the end of the 7-
day outlook, the upper level ridge begins to erode, allowing
temperatures to cool. Beyond that, the level of uncertainty over the
evolution of the weather pattern shoots upward. The previous
forecaster noted the split between those models that break down the
upper ridge more quickly into onshore flow and those that kept the
ridging in place a little longer. Looking at the latest ensemble
model cluster guidance, this still appears to be the case. By the
21st, the ensemble model clusters are split roughly half-to-half
between those with a more pronounced trough across the West Coast
and those that keep more zonal flow or even a residual ridge in
place. All together, it appears that a period of more active weather
may be in store as we head towards the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are being reported across the Bay
Area and Central Coast, with the exception being KHAF where the AWOS
and cameras show visibility reduced to MVFR conditions. Expect these
conditions to prevail through the evening hours, with the forecast
becoming a bit more challenging overnight. Confidence is high that
KSTS will see another foggy night; however, confidence is moderate
to low on who else might see reduced visibility due to fog. A decent
amount of MOS guidance and hi-res models indicate visibilities
falling to MVFR categories from roughly 9Z-18Z, with visibility
improving around or shortly after 18Z. Opted to hint at that with
the possibility of visibilities going lower with later updates. Stay
tuned.

Vicinity of SFO...Offshore winds will prevail today, with VFR
conditions holding through the evening and confidence being high.
After about 9Z, confidence becomes medium to low, as models suggest
KSFO and areas around it having visibilities fall to MVFR status.
Current thinking is we may see vis drop to about 6SM from 9Z-12Z
with conditions potentially falling to 4SM from 12-17Z and then
returning to VFR shortly after that period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and offshore conditions will prevail
today and should continue into tomorrow morning. Some models show
MVFR visibilities being possible after 12Z at KSNS and KMRY;
however, winds should remain elevated enough to keep fog at bay.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 858 AM PST Tue Jan 13 2026

Gentle to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds continue today,
before northerly winds return on Wednesday. Offshore winds return
Thursday and Saturday before northerlies return over the weekend.
Moderate seas will prevail through the week with the exception of
the northwestern portion of the waters where rough seas will
briefly build in Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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